Probabilities of Calendar Spreads

When looking at calendar spreads you still have to take into account the probabilities.  A regular calendar spread has a low probability of success and the curve is not wide enough to keep the trade on for any extended length of time. This is why you have to exit the trade early say within 3-4 days because you mitigate the inherent low probability by not holding on to the trade for long. Shorter time frames increase your probability of directional success.

Updated Trading Strategy

Here is my updated trading strategy:

• Trade high volume, high price stocks
• Look for the stock to be around the middle of its 52 week trading range
• High IV rank of 30% or better preferably 50% on up
• 90% probability of success and at least 1-2 standard deviations away
• Between 7 and 35 days left till expiration
• Leg into an iron condor with vertical spreads
• Collect at least .70 for each trade 
• Look to close each side at .15 one week later but no longer than 2 weeks later
• When the stock moves big one way look to close the winning side for a profit and re-deploy another iron condor
• Always stay at 90% probability OTM (out of the money) when you place your trade
• Never trade this strategy during earnings – use a different strategy 
• Use Person’s Pivots (PPS) to time entry
   

*Cash management

Leave $2000 available for options trading so you can fix any situations that go against you or jump on opportunities that may arise